The Global Monetary Policy Kaleidoscope

In 2009, in the face of a global economic crisis, the major economies of the world came together and acted in concert to ease monetary policy aggressively.  Together with fiscal stimulus in the US and China, these policies helped to prevent the world from slipping into depression.  Four years on, the economic conditions around the world vary enormously, and the appropriate monetary policies are now very different (though for all countries fiscal restraint is deemed necessary).  These differing monetary policies are producing clear differences in how the local financial markets are performing, and in 2013 there has been a much greater dispersion of performance between equity markets around the world than in 2012.

The economy with the most aggressively easy monetary policy (relative to the size of its economy)  is currently Japan, where in response to the lead of the new Prime Minister, the new Bank of Japan Governor has begun a programme of doubling the country’s monetary base in just two years.  This is being done deliberately to raise the rate of inflation in Japan from the negative rates seen in recent years to the new target of 2%.  To bring Japan out of its 20 year deflation, policymakers have articulated that inflation, and inflation expectations, need to rise to boost the nominal growth rate of the economy.  Should the current policy settings not be sufficient to do this, it is expected that policymakers will move monetary policy to an even easier stance.  The weaker yen that is likely from this policy should be instrumental in helping to boost inflation.

Next is the US, where currently the QE programme is about $4bn of new money creation every day that the financial markets are open.  Before the latest Japanese policy move, this constituted the most aggressive monetary easing.  However, the recent furore following Bernanke’s comments about the tapering of the QE policy indicate the sensitivity of markets to changes in the direction of US monetary policy.  Bernanke tried to argue that tapering a policy of printing $4bn every day to one of printing $2bn or $3bn was still a very accommodative policy; the markets however appeared to interpret it as a tightening of policy.  The rise in US bond yields since May shows that a policy that is easy, but less easy than it was, creates different expectations in the minds of investors, and the Federal Reserve’s words have thus changed the thinking of investors.

Both the ECB and the Bank of England are at a similar phase in their monetary policy.  Both have pursued unconventional policies in the past, the ECB with their three year LTROs and the Bank of England with their own QE programme, but have done little recently to move policy easier.  However, the new Bank of England Governor has clearly been tasked with boosting economic growth in the lead-up to the next election, and the ECB is concerned about the continued poor performance of the Eurozone economy.   The recent rise in bond yields that began in the US and spread across the Atlantic has been unwelcome as it raises the cost of borrowing for business and so offsets the otherwise easy policy in both the UK and the Eurozone.  A further easing of monetary policy can therefore be expected from both Central Banks, and crucially, for markets, the direction of monetary policy is still moving easier, in contrast to the US.

In China, markets have been surprised by the actions of the People’s Bank of China in not providing sufficient liquidity for the interbank market to operate smoothly in the face of liquidity pressures.  This caused overnight interest rates briefly to move above 10%, and has been interpreted as a lesson to the banking system that they have been too carefree with their lending and need to cut back.  This is effectively an act of policy tightening, though it is unlikely that the Chinese will take such tightening too far and seriously damage the economy’s growth prospects.

Finally, there are a number of significant emerging markets such as Brazil, Turkey, Indonesia and India where Central Banks have actually raised interest rates or have indicated an intention to do.  For the most part, this has been due to currency weakness, which boosts inflationary pressures in these economies, and so a tightening of monetary policy is believed to be required, in contrast to most of the rest of the world.

The league table of the stance of monetary policy, which runs from Japan, the US, the UK, Europe, China and Asia and then other emerging markets correlates precisely with the league table of year-to-date equity market performance.  Those countries with the easiest stance of monetary policy are those whose stock markets have performed best, and those with the tightest policy stance have performed worst.  This highlights the increasing dependence of financial markets on the liquidity provided by Central Banks, rather than fundamental economic and earnings trends.

Looking forward, we would expect Japan to remain at the top of the easy monetary league, with the UK moving up and the US moving down in the next few months, and the Eurozone having little room to make any changes.  China’s slowing growth will eventually produce an easier monetary policy, but may not be imminent, while the other emerging markets appear to be the furthest away from easier policy.  Japan and Asia remain the most favoured markets in our portfolios with Europe and Emerging Markets the least favoured.

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