Archives for May 2017

E for Election and E for Effort

The UK general election campaign, announced on April 18th, has been rather uninspiring so far. Whether is it a symptom of “democracy-fatigue” following two tight referenda and a hotly-contested, general election in the last 33 months, or an associated lack of funds amongst the political parties, or just the boredom of an election where the result seems obvious, no one seems to be putting in very much effort this time around in order to win it!

Theresa May, whose decision it was to call the election, appears to have decided that all she needs to do to win her expected larger majority, is to repeat “strong and stable government” at every opportunity and be photographed at various stage-managed events where all the questions and questioners are pre-selected. She has refused to enter into any direct debate with other party leaders. She has sought to frame the election as a choice of leader to take Britain through the Brexit negotiations, between herself and Jeremy Corbyn. Given her strong personal ratings and his weak personal ratings, she appears quite happy for media attention to focus on the him and the Labour party.

She has led the production of a vague and uncosted manifesto, particularly around Brexit, she has surprised many by some surprisingly detailed policies that work to the financial disadvantage of a core group of her supporters, the over-65s. All-in-all, she is giving the impression of expecting to win very easily and thus does not need to try too hard to gain votes.

For Jeremy Corbyn, this is the moment he has dreamed of – the chance to put in front of the UK electorate a Socialist manifesto and vision for the UK. However, it appears that his goal is not to win the election, but merely to do well enough that the left wing of the Labour party can say that there is a real demand for their ideas amongst a substantial section of the UK electorate. His campaign strategy has therefore concentrated on appearances in areas traditionally considered solidly Labour. His focus is on getting out that core Labour vote, and very little time of effort is being devoted to taking that manifesto to the rest of the country.

The UK Independence Party, which for many has achieved its original purpose of taking Britain out of the EU, is suffering from internal divisions and a lack of leadership and of money. – they are fielding many fewer candidates in the election, which they are justifying by saying they do not wish to put up candidates against previous strong proponents of Brexit.

Somewhat similarly, the Green Party has stood down candidates in a number of constituencies where they are seeking to promote a progressive alliance, and believe that a Liberal Democrat or Labour candidate would have a serious chance of defeating the Conservative candidate. Sadly for them, apart from in Brighton, the other parties have not acted in a reciprocal fashion.

Only the Liberal Democrats are campaigning at full volume. They have taken Teresa May at her word that this is an election about the Brexit negotiations and are the only party campaigning to remain within the EU’s single market, a very soft form of Brexit. They thought this would open up the possibility of gaining votes from the 48% who voted to stay in the EU, but current polling suggests that half of those now feel that the decision has been made and should be respected. The Liberal Democrats position is not gaining much traction with the electorate.

Maybe the excitement in British politics over the last three years is now over. A dull campaign looks likely to lead to a large Conservative majority as Britain enters the long and tortuous Brexit negotiations. No doubt a normal service will be resumed after it becomes clearer just what Britain will look like post-Brexit.