Just six months ago, the probability of victory for each of Brexit and Trump were 30% – and the odds on the double were thus 10-1 against. The world going into 2017 looks a very different and more uncertain place than it did a year ago.
However, Trump’s victory provides the UK with an opportunity to gain a substantially better agreement with the EU than it would have done with a Clinton victory, even though Mrs. Clinton may well have leaned on the EU countries to give the UK a sensible deal.
Trump’s victory has many European governments feeling considerably less secure. With his outspoken admiration of Vladimir Putin and his tendency to see foreign relations as a zero-sum game rather than mutual gains through international agreements, Trump’s view of NATO and European security is very different from his predecessors. For those in Eastern Europe, Putin is today a bigger threat to their borders and US military support less likely to be forthcoming.
One of the few cards that the UK holds in the Brexit negotiations is it deep and unwavering commitment to the military defence of its European allies, and despite the harsh words used against the rest of the EU from those seeking to leave the EU, their military support for the EU has not changed and they have consistently voiced this before, during and since the referendum. That support has now become much more meaningful and valuable, especially to those countries in the former Eastern Europe.
The desire to punish the UK for its audacity to leave the EU is now (post Trump) more likely to be to seek a strong agreement with a staunch ally who is also a nuclear power. On the Maslovian hierarchy of needs, the basic security of your country is a far more powerful force than the continued existence of a financial passporting system or some controls on the uninhibited movement of people between countries.
In addition, once again, through their votes, the UK and the US have shown the similarity of their thought processes (a clear parallel being the ascensions of Thatcher and then Reagan), which often baffle European minds. Maintaining a close and friendly relationship with the UK is likely to be helpful to Europeans in understanding and interpreting the actions of the US. Trump has spent time in the UK (though mostly in Scotland), has openly identified his success with Brexit and did
promise to put the UK at the front of the queue for a trade agreement post-Brexit, following Obama’s threat that it would be at the back of the queue. Though of course this would be strictly on Trump’s terms, and have almost no cost to US jobs – it would enable him to show that there are some trade deals he will do if they are right for the US. The EU-US trade deal, already stymied by European doubts before Trump’s success is now dead in the water.
Trump’s victory will change the world in many ways, but one of the more surprising ones is likely to be that the UK obtains a better exit agreement from the EU than would have occurred without Trump.